10 Predictions for AI, Media & Entertainment in 2025
What to Expect in the New Year (& What to Discuss at CES)
Let me be amongst the first to wish you a very H-AI-ppy New Year! I’ll be celebrating in Vegas at the Sphere for its first DJ set ever (and then punishing myself by returning to Vegas for CES; I have a hangover already just thinking about it!). Here’s your final “brAIn” dump of the year — my annual 10 predictions. [Note: No new “AI Litigation Tracker” updates for the next few weeks due to the holidays and little court activity — but you can bet that leading IP law firm McKool Smith is on the case. Until then, check out the latest case status here.] But first …
Gratitude.
Thanks to all of you for engaging in an ongoing dialog with me, sharing your thoughts, and reading my own syntheses of them all in these “pages.” It means a lot to me — gives me purpose — and gives me deep professional and personal satisfaction. I can honestly say that 2024 was one of the most rewarding. So LET’s GO for 2025!
I. 10 Predictions for AI, Media & Entertainment in 2025
2024 — what a year that was in the world of generative AI! But enough looking back. Onward! With that in mind, here are my 10 predictions for what to expect in the world of generative AI as it impacts media and entertainment in 2025.
#1. Courts Will Make Their First “Fair Use” Decisions (& Media Will “Win” More Than It Loses)
Federal district courts hearing generative AI copyright infringement cases (The New York Times v. OpenAI, Dow Jones v. Perplexity, etc.) will make their first “fair use” decisions, and those initial decisions will be a mixed bag — but will come down mostly on the side of rights-holders (i.e., rejecting fair use). That won’t mean the “fair use” issue will be conclusively resolved, of course. Not all courts will reach the same decision, and generative AI companies on the losing end will certainly appeal. But initial court victories by IP rights-holders will have far-reaching ramifications. Read on.
#2. GenAI Companies Will Accelerate Their Content Licensing Activity
Media’s initial legal victories on the issue of “fair use” will immediately impact and accelerate the market for licensing content for generative AI purposes (i.e., training and output/display) — significantly increasing the dollars and overall economics that flow to rights-holders. 2024 already saw an increasing number of deals between Big Tech and Big Media. But GenAI’s insatiable need for “fresh” content for both fine-tuning and output/display purposes — coupled with these initial court victories — will significantly expand 2024’s deal numbers (and the dollars that flow from them).
#3. Companies Will Embrace “Ethical AI”
“Ethical AI” — i.e., LLMs trained only on licensed content — is already a major “thing” (as it should be). But the prioritization of “ethical AI” will be a leading theme in 2025, fueled by those court cases that begin to beat back Big Tech’s claims of “fair use.” Any company operating in the creative community — i.e., where personal, human relationships matter (studios and streamers for example) — will face mounting pressure only to work with “ethical AI” companies. But the call for “ethical AI” will go well beyond the world of media and entertainment. I recently featured one such highly pedigreed “ethical AI” company, ProRata AI.
#4. The Industry Will Move Toward a 3-Tier Content Licensing System
Yes, 2025 will feature an increasing number of content licensing deals for bigger and bigger dollars between Big Tech and “Tier-1” Big Media. But “Tier-2” mid-tail media companies will begin to join the “fun” too. Expect “content pools” — aggregating the content of multiple media companies — to offer a “strength in numbers” approach that works for both the participating mid-tail media companies and the generative AI companies that need their content. Meanwhile, we will begin to see the first automated “opt in” licensing systems for smaller “Tier-3” rights-holders that boast compelling quality content. Tollbit is a leading start-up that offers that kind of an automated solution, hails out of Silicon Valley, and has been significantly funded.
#5. Media Licensing for AI Will Trigger Scrutiny on Individual Talent Name, Image, Likeness & Voice Issues
If Big Media IP/content rights-holders decide to license their content libraries to Big Tech for generative AI training purposes — which they increasingly will — then individual celebrity talent featured in those licensed films and television series will expect to be paid (as they should). In other words, name, image, likeness and voice issues will need to be solved with consent and compensation. These discussions — which began to bubble up quietly in the latter half of 2024 — are now rising to the top. I know, because I am in the midst of them.
#6. Entertainment Will Need New AI Tracking, Reporting & Payment Systems
Content rights-holders of all stripes will need to be paid when their content is used for LLM training and in connection with GenAI output/display. And licensing contracts and protocols will need to be enforced. For all these reasons, new companies will rise up to offer the content tracking and reporting systems necessary for a new economic model to rise up and take hold. ProRata AI mentioned above in Prediction #3 is one such company. Vermillio is another.
#7. The Entertainment Industry Will More Openly Embrace GenAI in Its Workflows, After Quietly Experimenting in 2024
Shhh. Hear anything? Nothing but crickets so far from the major studios and streamers about GenAI companies scraping their copyrighted works without consent and compensation. And there’s a reason for that. Major entertainment companies want to use generative AI for myriad reasons (e.g., production cost and speed efficiencies), but haven’t done it yet openly due to understandable fear of creative community blowback. But 2025 will force the issue — and entertainment companies will reach initial understandings with individual talent (and their guilds) on how it can and should be done.
#8. The Music Industry Will Continue to Act More Aggressively Towards Big Tech
The music industry faces even more existential questions posed by generative AI than the broader set of entertainment companies (studios and streamers) — and that’s why we saw the major labels sue several GenAI companies for infringement in 2024 (while the studios and streamers remained silent). Music’s more aggressive stance will continue in 2025, and relationships between the major music labels and GenAI companies will remain mostly fractured. They and the artists they represent will expect to be paid — and seek to find ways to stop the flood of endless AI-generated music that has begun to overrun Spotify and all streamers. It’s in both sides’ interests to find workable solutions that will also enhance consumer experiences.
#9. The Broader Creative Community Will Move Past Its Initial AI Shock & Awe — and Begin to Use GenAI at Scale
Generative AI is here to stay and is already transforming the media and entertainment industry. That means this tech-tonic transformation can’t be feared, but instead should be met with stoicism — AI acceptance, education and “ethical AI” experimentation — across all segments of “the business.” The creative community will respond with significantly more widespread use of generative AI for both creative and efficiency reasons. One obvious use case — helping to shatter writer’s block.
#10. Sora & Other Video Generators Will Enable Filmmakers to Create the First “Real” Short Films
OpenAI unleashed ChatGPT just over 2 years ago, and then launched Sora early this past year. Sora’s just-released version — open to us all for the first time — enables 1080p videos up to 20 seconds. Can there be any doubt that AI’s relentless power will be at a significantly higher order of magnitude by the end of next year? So expect Sora — and competing video generators offered by Google, Meta and others — to enable the creation of the first “real” high quality short films of several minutes.
WATCH & LISTEN TO ME DISCUSS MY 10 PREDICTIONS — WITH DEEPER CONTEXT & COMMENTARY— VIA THIS VIDEO
And please send me your feedback at peter@creativemedia.biz (and share with others to collect their feedback).
II. It’s Nearly CES time. Reach Out to Meet!
I moderate an AI panel at Digital Hollywood next Monday, January 6th, titled “AI and the Crisis of Creative Rights: Deep Fakes, Ethics & the Law”. Join the conversation — and reach out to me to meet January 6, 7 or 8 -- peter@creativemedia.biz.
And check out my firm Creative Media and our AI-focused services. Work with us to get to the right senior level decision-makers at the major generative AI companies to explore AI licensing — and to discuss, strategize and solve your overall AI issues, goals and needs. We’re tapped in at all the right levels — and with deep market intelligence not available anywhere else.
Send your feedback to me and my newsletter via peter@creativemedia.biz.