5 Predictions For AI, Media & Entertainment In 2026
Brace Yourselves: Sh*t Gets Real In 2026!
It’s that time of year again — to look forward to a year that AI “Accelerationists” tell us will bring changes unfathomable not so long ago. So buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride. Here’s my “brAIn” to set the stage for what’s to come in 2026 — my annual predictions for AI, media and entertainment. They aren’t meant to be safe. They’re meant to spur debate. So let’s do it!
5 Predictions for 2026:
(1) “Fair Use” Dominoes Continue To Fall
Sh*t got real for AI developers this year in the courts. Early decisions largely rejected “fair use” as a defense to wholesale copying of creative IP for generative AI use (my earlier article here explains why). My Magic 8-Ball says 2026 accelerates that trend, not reverses it — tilting overall power dynamics in the creative community’s favor.
Yes, these cases will be appealed.
Yes, lawyers will argue nuance.
But the fundamental core logic holds. You can’t ingest the entire creative output of humanity and call it “transformative” just because algorithms are involved.
The Supreme Court may ultimately weigh in, but that will take years. In the meantime, early federal district court decisions massively shape GenAI market behavior.
And that legal pressure leads directly to Prediction #2 below.
(2) Settlements & Licensing Deals Accelerate
Expect AI/media settlements to surge in 2026. Midjourney will settle with Disney, Universal, and Warner Bros. (all sued earlier this year). OpenAI — fresh on the heels of its shocking $1 billion deal with Disney (here’s my analysis from a few days back) and reeling from hyper-competition from Google — will settle with The New York Times (its most dangerous infringement litigation).
We’ve already seen the blueprint. Anthropic’s $1.5 billion settlement with the Bartz author class — the largest copyright settlement in U.S. history — sent a clear message: certainty beats existential risk. Federal judge William Alsup’s ominous words in that case undoubtedly lit a fire: “if Anthropic loses big, it will be because what it did was also big.” Anthropic couldn’t afford that risk.
And when McKinsey now projects $7 Trillion in mostly AI infrastructure spend by 2030, it becomes increasingly hard for Big Tech to argue that none of that money should flow to the creators whose content gives their AI its core commercial value.
Licensing isn’t a tax.
Licensing is the price to be paid for essential ingredients. It’s the price of legality — and industry sustainability.
That’s why generative music darling Suno — which had already conceded that it scraped the entire internet of music without consent — just settled with Warner Music Group. And that’s why Suno’s twin brother in arms Udio chose the same path.
To be clear, these settlements are “win wins” for both media and tech. Cooperate, rather than litigate.
Cooperation in the form of deal-making outside the courts will accelerate too — and for the same reasons. Expect an increasing drumbeat of major licensing deals — just like The New York Times’ bellwether multi-faceted licensing deal with Amazon earlier this year.
(3) The White House Plays Its AI Trump Card — But This Time It Doesn’t Work
Yes, Trump just signed his Executive Order to stop states from regulating AI. But here’s the thing — copyright is federal law, not state law, and no Executive Order overrides the courts or Congress. Of course, Trump will bloviate and intimidate. And yes, many in Congress will capitulate. But the courts will hold firm and continue to define the scope of copyright protection and AI “fair use.”
Trump will not stop judges from ruling.
He will not stop IP plaintiffs from suing.
But what about the Supreme Court? The conservative majority may fast track an AI/media copyright case — and its knee jerk reaction, of course, will be to bend the knee to Trump yet again. But this time the majority’s own words about state sovereignty and constitutional text box it in. Take its recent abortion decision. Guns, another. Copyright — written explicitly into our Constitution — is certainly that. The Supreme Court will be “hoisted with its own petard” in an almost Shakespearean way.
Political pressure will be loud.
Legal gravity will be louder.
Trump will be trumped.
(4) Hollywood Openly Embraces AI — But “Ethical AI” Finally Matters
In 2026, Hollywood stops being coy. Studios openly use generative AI for content development, not just post-production polish. But not all AI tools are created equal. “Ethical AI” becomes a real differentiator.
Disney’s $1 billion OpenAI investment — with its licensing of over 200 beloved Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars characters for Sora — is a watershed moment. It reflects the new AI reality of partnering and value-sharing for both media and AI tech.
For Disney, the deal reflects its concession that AI is here to stay — better to leverage AI’s power to generate new revenue streams and accelerate young brand fandom.
For OpenAI, the deal shows it finally understands that partnership with the creative community is the only way to move forward to get the content and scale it needs.
The era of “scrape first, apologize later” is over.
(5) Creative Vision Wins — And Relationships Matter More
Despite AI’s ability to generate end-to-end content, human creative vision remains on top across entertainment, media, music, marketing, and all forms of storytelling. Something uncanny persists without it.
Storytelling can’t just be defined by bits and bytes. Even the most AI bullish content creators will realize that it takes a village (of humans) — a vision based on real human experience — for stories to truly connect (I wrote about this in an earlier newsletter).
That doesn’t mean there won’t be increasing numbers of AI-driven layoffs, of course. Sadly, there will.
But marketing and creative agencies — impacted first by those layoffs — will come to understand that AI-only marketing pitches don’t work. Genre.ai is one creative ad studio to watch because they “get” it.
Meanwhile, Hollywood’s mass layoffs and increasing focus on AI for filmmaking and television production leave an opening for indie studios like Mubi to thrive with inspired, innovative and visionary content differentiation. Hollywood talent will increasingly seek them out to be part of something more creatively meaningful and “human.”
Through it all, relationships matter even more across entertainment, media, music, and marketing in 2026 to combat AI-driven job displacement — as workers of all stripes fight to maintain their relevance and find their next gigs.
No jobs are immune. The pain will be real.
Those who embrace this stark reality, invest in relationships, demonstrate flexibility, and take active steps to be GenAI curious and literate will be rewarded.
Maintaining optimism and taking action amidst the AI storm is the only way.
What do you think? Send me your feedback to peter@creativemedia.biz.
Whenever You’re Ready …
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